Currency Exchange Rates Over Time Coupon

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Estimated Reading Time 9 mins

• Supply and Demand. Currency can be bought and sold just like stocks, bonds, or other investments. And just like these other investments – and almost anything else you can buy or sell – supply and demand influences price.
• Political Stability. Currency is issued by governments. In order for a currency to retain its value (or even exist at all) the government which backs it has to be strong.
• Economic Strength. Economic uncertainty is as big of a factor as political instability. A currency backed by a stable government isn’t likely to be strong if the economy is in the toilet.
• Inflation. Low inflation increases the value of a currency, whereas high inflation usually makes the value of a currency drop. If a candybar costs $2 today, but there is 2% inflation then that same candy bar will cost $2.02 in a year – that’s inflation.
• Interest rates. When the Bank of Canada (or any other central bank) raises interest rates it’s essentially offering lenders (like banks) a higher return on investment.
• Trade Balance. A country’s balance of trade (meaning how much a country imports vs how much that country exports) is an important factor behind exchange rates.
• Debt. Debt, specifically public debt (that is the debt incurred by governments) can also greatly affect interest rates. This is because a large amount of debt often leads to inflation.
• Quantitative Easing. Quantitative easing – usually shortened to QE – is a mouthful, but it really isn’t all that complicated. The simplest explanation is that central banks will try to stoke the economy by providing banks with greater liquidity (meaning cash) in the hopes that they will then lend or invest that money and in doing so boost the economy.
• Unemployment. Unemployment levels in a country affect almost every facet of its economic performance, including exchange rates. Unemployed people have less money to spend, and in times of real economic hardship high levels of unemployment will encourage employed people to start saving, just in case they wind up unemployed too.
• Growth Forecasts. Most countries aim for about 2-3% growth per year. High levels of economic growth lead to inflation, which can push the value of currency down.

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